Lead Paint Risk Methodology
What the Score Measures
LeadPaintRisk.org estimates area-level lead paint risk using the share of housing units built before the 1978 federal ban on residential lead-based paint. Older housing stock is a screening signal: it helps identify places where lead paint may be more likely, but it does not confirm hazards in any specific home.
Primary Data Source
The site uses U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey housing-age data, specifically the year-structure-built categories from table B25034. We aggregate the pre-1978 categories at state, county, city/place, and census-tract levels.
Risk Bands
| Band | Pre-1978 Housing Share | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| High | 60%+ | Most housing predates the lead paint ban. Property-level testing is strongly worth considering. |
| Elevated | 40%–59.9% | A significant share of housing predates 1978. Older homes deserve follow-up. |
| Moderate | 20%–39.9% | Mixed housing ages. Risk depends heavily on the specific property. |
| Low | Under 20% | Most housing is newer, but individual older homes may still contain lead paint. |
Important Limitations
- This is not a certified inspection, lab test, legal disclosure, or official government grade.
- A newer census tract can still contain older individual homes.
- An older home may have had lead hazards removed or safely encapsulated.
- Lead hazards often arise when old paint deteriorates or is disturbed during renovation.
Recommended Next Steps
If you live in or are buying/renting a pre-1978 home, use this site as a prompt to ask better questions: What year was the property built? Has it been tested? Are painted surfaces deteriorating? Will renovation disturb old paint? For confirmation, use a certified lead inspector, risk assessor, or lab-tested dust/paint sample.
Download the data or return to the address lookup.